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The global oil market is showing unexpected resilience as OPEC+ begins to unwind its voluntary production cuts. Over the months of April, May, and June 2025, the alliance is restoring approximately 1 million barrels per day (bpd) to the market—a move that many analysts feared could destabilize prices. Yet, the market has remained surprisingly balanced, with no significant drop in prices reported.
According to Reuters, OPEC+ is on track to approve further increases in output by July, continuing a controlled approach to supply restoration. Despite these increases, benchmark Brent crude prices have remained steady at around $65 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is holding firm near $62.
One key factor contributing to market stability is consistent global demand. Economic growth in emerging markets, the ongoing recovery of global transport and aviation, and sustained industrial activity have helped absorb the additional barrels. At the same time, OPEC+ has been careful not to increase output too aggressively, maintaining a sense of control over global supply dynamics.
Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s leading producer, has reportedly indicated its willingness to tolerate lower prices temporarily in order to preserve market share and enforce discipline among member countries. As reported by Reuters, this strategic flexibility underscores Riyadh’s long-term view of market health over short-term gains.
In a statement, UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed Al Mazrouei emphasized that the alliance must remain attentive to rising global oil demand. His remarks reflect the growing consensus within OPEC+ that supply decisions must be responsive, not rigid—especially in a market that continues to evolve with economic shifts, geopolitical tensions, and environmental pressures.
The group’s next ministerial meeting is expected to review current market conditions and determine the pace of further output increases. For now, however, OPEC+’s cautious return of barrels has defied expectations, keeping the market “miraculously balanced” as many observers have put it.
